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A veteran GOP strategist believes pollsters have been getting it "wrong" in the final days leading up to the 2024 presidential election by overlooking a "massive shift" in voter registration since the last election, which he believes favors former President Donald Trump.
Alex Castellanos, who previously worked on campaigns for Republicans Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney, claimed that polls showing a slim margin between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are overlooking a "wavelet out there of Republican enthusiasm" during an appearance on FOX News' Special Report Sunday (November 3).
“What I think they’re missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this. Thirty-one states have voter registration by party. Thirty of them in the past four years have seen movement toward Republicans,” Castellanos said. “I think there’s, I’m not going to call it a wave, but I think there’s a wavelet out there of Republican enthusiasm and registration. If I register to vote Republican, whether I’m switching or new, what am I going to do?”
“I think the pollsters are getting this wrong. We’re all missing something, because they’re giving us the same poll over and over again. There isn’t even statistical variation,” he added. “It’s like they’re telling us we’re watching a basketball game where every play’s a jump ball.”
Several battleground state polls show Trump and Harris within the margin of error in the final days leading up to the election. Last week, Famed polling expert Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight claimed irresponsible pollsters were "herding" their numbers, or recycling past results to affect current ones, in order to make it seem like the two candidates were within a point or two margin.
“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said on his podcast, specifically naming Emerson College as an example.
“They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ no! You’re f**king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” he added.
“Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys,” Silver continued. “You are lying! You’re putting your f**king finger on the scale!'”